Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Treasury Auctions from July 2009 to June 2010
(1-Year Anniversary Special)

(Click on the chart for sharper image.)

Observations:

After subdued fall and winter auctions, the treasury auctions spiked in March, due to the increased issuance of short-term bills, in particular, 56-day CMB (Cash Management Bill) to raise money for the use of Federal Reserve (and the money goes to the "Supplemental Financing Account" at the Federal Reserve; the balance as of June 30 is $199,965 million).

In addition to the 56-day CMB, there has been a noticeable increase in short-term bill issuance since January.

  • Weekly issuance of 4-week bill went from $10 billion in January to $36 billion in the last week of June;
  • Weekly issuance of 13-week bill went from $23 billion in January to $28 billion in June; and
  • Weekly issuance of 26-week bill went from $25 billion in January to $28 billion in June.
The dotted line on the chart indicates the total amount of short-term bills each month.

The issuance of notes and bonds declined in June to below $180 billion per month for the first time since July 2009. 12-month average is $193.15 billion per month.

This is despite the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner's remarks last October that the Treasury plans to lengthen the average maturity of debt from 49 months to 72 months.

Looking at the actual auction results for the last 12 months, particularly since the beginning of this year, the opposite seems to be true; the Treasury Department is borrowing using short-term debt to fund the government spending, which by nature is long-term.

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Terminology
SOMA System Open Market Account at the Federal Reserve New York Bank
Primary Dealer A bank or securities broker-dealer that may trade directly with the Federal Reserve System. Primary Dealers are required to bid at Treasury auctions. Current list of Primary Dealers is available at New york Fed.
Indirect Bidder Supposed to be the foreign investors, both foreign central banks and foreign private investors
Bid to Cover ratio The number of bids received divided by the number of bids accepted. The higher the ratio, the higher the demand.
Reopening The U.S. Treasury issues additional amounts of a previously issued security. The reopened security has the same maturity date and coupon interest rate as the original security, but with a different issue date and usually a different purchase price.
Cash Management Bill (CMB) A short-term security sold by the U.S. Department of the Treasury. The maturity on a CMB can range from a few days to six months. The money raised through these issues is used by the Treasury to meet any temporary shortfalls. CMBs tend to pay higher yields than bills with fixed maturities, but their shorter maturities lead to lower overall interest expense.
Supplementary Financing Program (SFP) A program initiated by the U.S. Treasury Department at the request of the Federal Reserve in September 17, 2008. The cash raised from the auction will be used in the various Federal Reserve initiatives to support the financial markets and manage its balance sheet.

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